Sunday Musings: 2022 can't bring more of the same

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There is a big red panic button hiding somewhere. They don’t call it that, but let’s not fool ourselves. 

It isn’t the one that you get at Staples that is labeled “easy.” It’s a button that will decide the future of the Sacramento Kings, the current 17 players under contract and potentially the coaching staff and front office. 

We are quickly approaching that moment when teams are either buyers or sellers. In theory, you can be both, but that’s a complex equation that the Kings haven’t shown the ability to navigate for many years, if ever. 

You could also be neither a buyer nor seller, which is pretty much where we’ve been for the last 18 months. 

At 15-22 the Kings are a mess, but due to the lack of quality in the Western Conference, they are in an odd position. After Saturday’s games, the Kings currently sit at No. 10 in the standings. If the season were to end today, that is good enough to make the play-in tournament.  

The record isn’t great and the reality of their situation is even more confusing when put into context with the rest of the conference. With their current record, the Kings are four and a half games out of the fifth seed in the west and five games out of last place.

There is an opportunity here for the Kings to swing for the fences and potentially move up in the standings. There is also a path where they gut their current roster and play for one of the very talented players that sit in the top 5 of the upcoming draft. 

With the fanbase dwindling and the attendance numbers reaching an all-time low, the team almost has no choice. They have a broken product with a bloated payroll and despite their current place in the standings, they are not a team that should be in the running for the postseason and likely won’t be come April if changes aren’t made. 

December 15 was supposed to be the kickoff of the trade season, but the date came and went without any movement. Now the league is caught up in a covid outbreak of epic proportions. Teams have gutted the G League and brought players out of retirement to get to the league minimum of eight players each game night. 

While the covid situation is still hanging over the league, the February 10 trade deadline is now just a little over a month away. We are about to see a sprint, not a jog to the finish line, at least in theory.

The Kings have assets. They also have some difficult decisions to make. Who is the core of this team and who is expendable? How much are they willing to spend? Does the current front office have approval to make trades at all costs?

The most valuable pieces the Kings have don’t have names, they have projected numbers. Sacramento, a franchise that hasn’t made the postseason for 15 seasons, has all of their first round picks over the next seven seasons (which is the furthest out you can trade) and if McNair has access to the treasure trove, then that should be enough to sweeten the pot. 

There has long been hope that a package that includes Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley will yield something. If nothing else, this duo has roughly $34.4 million in contract value, but the fact that they are still on the roster means that there wasn’t a deal worth making coming into the season. 

Sacramento also has a few veterans that might draw interest. Harrison Barnes has been a hot commodity over the last two seasons, but the Kings have chosen to keep him in the fold.

With just one more year on his contract after this season, McNair has to balance the future and the now when it comes to Barnes. If he gets an offer of a young player or two and a future first round selection, then it might be time to move on from the veteran. 

Center Richaun Holmes is another player that may draw interest around the league. The 28-year-old center signed a new four-year, $48 million contract in the summer and his status as an “early bird contract” complicates the team’s ability to move him.   

According to Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ, the Kings cannot trade Holmes “for three months or until January 15 of that season (whichever is later) after re-signing a free agent with Larry Bird or Early Bird rights, if the team is over the cap, the player's new salary is above the minimum, and he receives a raise greater than 20%.”

January 15 is just two weeks away, but Holmes’ contract is extremely favorable and he fits the Kings’ roster well. Still, his ability to defend on the perimeter as a big man and make an impact in the pick-and-roll game should be valuable on the open market if the Kings choose to go a different direction.

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Veterans Moe Harkless, Alex Len and Tristan Thompson have limited value, but each could be used as part of a bigger trade. Both Harkless and Len are under budget contracts for next season and Thompson is on a $9.7 million expiring contract. 

Again, this group is more filler than they are trade chips, but the Kings have plenty of different salary values to fit into two, three and even four team trades.

The same could be said for Terence Davis, who McNair locked up to a two-year, $8 million contract in the offseason after acquiring him midseason last year from the Raptors for a pair of second round picks. He’s currently out of interim head coach Alvin Gentry’s rotation.

No one on the roster is untouchable, although the Kings shouldn’t be in the market to deal away any of the young guard triumvirate of Tyrese Haliburton, De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell. 

Due to Haliburton’s contract value, length of team control and the fact that he was Monte McNair’s first draft selection, likely elevates him above Fox in the franchise’s valuation. 

Fox just turned 24 years old and is in season one of a five-year, $163 million contract extension. He isn’t having the breakout season many had hoped for, but he has been the face of the franchise for the last three seasons and moving on from him is difficult to imagine.

Mitchell is another McNair draft selection and fits long term alongside Fox, Haliburton or as a third guard. He brings a defensive intensity that the Kings love and his value might be higher to the Kings than to another team. 

The Kings have another stack of young players like Chimezie Metu, Damian Jones, Robert Woodard and Jahmi’us Ramsey, but none of these four are under contract past this season. If they are included in a trade, it’s to balance the dollar figures. 

Both Metu and Jones are currently in the rotation and have earned a longer look, but they aren’t considered core pieces at this point. 

Nothing is guaranteed at the moment, but standing pat should be considered almost a dereliction of duty by McNair and his group. They sat out the free agency window in their first offseason, losing Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kent Bazemore and Len in free agency and replacing the trio with Haliburton as a draft pick, Hassan Whiteside and Glen Robinson III.

McNair’s main additions in the last nine months -- Harkless, Davis, Thompson and Len, are all out of the rotation at this point, although all four make occasional appearances. None of them have been true difference makers.

The only players McNair has added to the roster that consistently play are Haliburton and Mitchell. You could add Metu and Jones to that group, but again, they are back end of the rotation players on one-year contracts, not core players at this time. 

This is where the Kings sit a little over a month before the trade deadline. They should be active, but we thought that last year at this time and during free agency. To date, the moves could only be described as tinkering.

With the team showing very little consistency and straddling the line between marginal and bad in the standings, a shake up is needed. The panic button is staring McNair in the face. He isn’t to that point quite yet, but he should be feeling the pressure to either improve this roster or take a substantial step backwards. 

2022 can’t be more of the same. Don’t make a move to make a move. Make a move because the roster isn’t good enough.